稿件编号:20210211
蒋业恒,高娜,陈勇,钱伟聪.中国木材进口需求材种结构数量关系分析[J].世界林业研究,2021,34(2):62~67
中国木材进口需求材种结构数量关系分析
A Quantitative Relationship Analysis of Demanded Species Structure in China’s Timber Importation
投稿时间:2020-02-03  修订日期:2020-08-17
DOI:10.13348/j.cnki.sjlyyj.2020.0085.y
中文关键词:  材种结构  木材进口  近乎理想的需求系统模型  中国
英文关键词:timber species structure  timber importation  Almost Ideal Demand System Model  China
基金项目:国家林业和草原局世行中心项目“国际木材贸易与国家储备林发展战略研究”
作者单位E-mail
蒋业恒 中国林业科学研究院林业科技信息研究所北京 100091  
高娜 国家林业和草原局世界银行贷款项目管理中心北京 100714 gaonasfa@163.com 
陈勇 中国林业科学研究院林业科技信息研究所北京 100091  
钱伟聪 中国林业科学研究院林业科技信息研究所北京 100091  
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中文摘要:
      文中采用近乎理想的需求系统模型,分析中国木材进口需求的结构性特征及各材种之间的经济学关系。研究发现:进口针叶材的支出弹性明显高于阔叶材,说明进口木材消费规模的扩大将在更大程度上带动针叶材需求;针叶锯材进口需求富有弹性而其他商品进口需求缺乏弹性,尤其是阔叶原木进口需求曲线最为陡峭;不同材种之间的交叉价格弹性为负值,同一材种之间的交叉价格弹性为正值,说明不同材种之间为互补品,而同一材种之间为替代品;粗加工产品进口价格的上涨会引发深加工产品进口量的上升,如果再加上旺盛的进口需求,这一效果将更为明显。
英文摘要:
      This study analyzes structural characteristics of China’s timber import demand and the economic relationship among different species using Almost Ideal Demand System Model. The results find that the expenditure elasticity of coniferous species import is higher than that of non-coniferous species import, indicating that the expansion of the imported timber consumption will increase the imports of coniferous timber to larger extent; the coniferous sawnwood import demand is elastic, while the demand for other goods are inelastic, especially for non-coniferous roundwood import which sees the steepest demand curve; the cross-price elasticity between different species is negative, while the cross-price elasticity between same species is positive, which suggests that different species are complementary while the same species are substitutes to each other; price hike of primary processed timber products will push up the demand for deeply processed products, especially if the total demand soars.
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